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Finally, to keep all aspects of the systems and components being tested objective and completely mechanical, we have drawn upon our academic and scientific research backgrounds to apply the scientific method to the study of entry and exit techniques In addition, when appropriate, statistics are used to assess the significance of the results of the investigations This approach should provide the most rigorous information possible about what constitutes a valid and useful component in a successful trading strategy So that everyone will benefit from the investigations, the exact logic behind every entry or exit strategy is discussed in detail For those wishing to replicate and expand the studies contained herein, extensive source code is also provided in the text, as well as on a CD-ROM (see offer at back of book).

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Since a basic trading system is always composed of two components, this book naturally includes the following two parts: The Study of Entries and The Study of Exits Discussions of particular technologies that may be used in generating entries or exits, eg, neural networks, are handled within the context of developing particular entry or exit strategies The Introduction contains lessons on the fundamental issues surrounding the implementation of the scientific approach to trading system development The first part of this book, Tools of the Trade, contains basic information, necessary for all system traders The Conclusion provides a summary of the research findings, with suggestions on how to best apply the knowledge and for future research The Appendix contains references and suggested reading.

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1. Catalogs are succeeding today for all but which of the following reasons a. Personalized catalogs b. Lightning-fast ful llment c. Universal credit cards d. Sophisticated telesales e. No-hassle returns 2. Why don t many catalogers today do database marketing a. It provides no sales lift. b. They have never heard of it. c. The economics of catalog production.

Finally, we would like to point out that this book is a continuation and elaboration of a series of articles we published as Contributing Writers to Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities from 1996, onward..

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There is one thing that most traders have in common: They have taken on the challenge of forecasting and trading the financial markets, of searching for those small islands of lucrative inefficiency in a vast sea of efficient market behavior For one of the authors, Jeffrey Katz, this challenge was initially a means to indulge an obsession with mathematics Over a decade ago, he developed a model that provided entry signals for the Standard & Poor s 500 (S&P 500) and OEX While these signals were, at that time, about 80% accurate, Katz found himself secondguessing them Moreover, he had to rely on his own subjective determinations of such critical factors as what kind of order to use for entry, when to exit, and where to place stops.

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These determinations, the essence of discretionary trading, were often driven more by the emotions of fear and avarice than by reason and knowledge As a result, he churned and vacillated, made bad decisions, and lost more often than won For Katz, like for most traders, discretionary trading did not work If discretionary trading did not work, then what did Perhaps system trading was the answer Katz decided to develop a completely automated trading system in the form of a computer program that could generate buy, sell, stop, and other necessary orders without human judgment or intervention A good mechanical system, logic suggested, would avoid the problems associated with discretionary trading, if the discipline to follow it could be mustered.

d. All of the above. e. None of the above. Give three reasons why catalogers have pro table Web sites today. What did Of ce Depot nd was the valuable feature of customers who shopped both at the retail stores and on the Web When GUS adopted collaborative ltering, what marketing method did it change and by how much a. Catalog distribution was down 8 percent. b. Cross sales were up 100 percent. c. Web visits were up 15 percent. d. Call abandonment was down 10 percent. e. None of the above. List four things that catalogers need to add to their Web sites if they are going to succeed on the Web. What did Macy s do when it found that customers were leaving its site when they didn t nd what they wanted What is the advantage to Lands End of having a personal shopper Conversion rates were up: a. 10 percent b. 20 percent c. 30 percent d. 40 percent e. None of the above As the Sharper Image email campaign grew in size, what happened to its catalog distribution a. It went down 5 percent b. It went down 10 percent c. It went down 20 percent d. It went down 25 percent e. None of the above What is the advantage of a Virtual Model to Lands End Conversion rates were up by a. 16 percent b. 26 percent c. 36 percent d. 46 percent e. 56 percent

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