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. When testing a model that can be used with multiple indicators, try several to see whether any yield distinct improvements. n Attempt to algorithmically implement concepts normally employed in a highly variable and subjective manner. Sometimes this can be exceptionally difficult, requiring fuzzy logic or neural network technology, along with other specialized methods.

trade. If you do trade, you will enter at the open and exit at the close. You also need to decide how to enter the market: Should you go long or short As part of the decision process, you examine the behavior of the market on all June 7s that occurred within a look-back window of some number of years (e.g., 10). You tabulate the number of June 7s on which trading occurred, the average open-to-close change in price, and the percentage of time the market rallied or collapsed. Perhaps, in the past 10 years, there were eight instances when the market was open and June 7 was a trading day: of those instances. perhaps the market closed higher than it opened six times (75%) and the average change in price was 2.50 (a reasonable figure for the S&P 500). On the basis of this information, you place a trading order to enter long tomorrow at the open and to exit at the close. Tomorrow evening you repeat the procedure for June 8, the evening after that for June 9, and so on. This is one form of seasonal trading. Will you make a profit trading this way Will your trading at least be better than chance These are the questions that arise when discussing seasonal trading and that this chapter attempts to answer. WHAT IS SEASONALITY

CRM is, in general, a mirage, an illusion based on a nice idea (the right offer to the right customer at the right time) that does not work out in practice: One-to-one marketing, which sounds wonderful, may in fact not be possible in most product and service situations We lack the information The data about any individual that are available may not be suf cient to predict that individual s behavior, although it may be suf ciently accurate to predict the behavior of the customer segment of which he or she is a part Making the right offer to the right customer at the right time may be impossible People make decisions based on personal factors that cannot be captured in a database We can, however, pro tably target segments Companies cannot easily shift from being product-focused to being customer-focused It sounds great, but few have actually done it.

The term seasondity is used in many different ways by traders. Some construe seasonality as events that are strictly related the four seasons, e.g., the increased demand for heating oil in the winter or gasoline in the summer. Others have a more liberal interpretation that includes weather patterns and election cycles. Over the years, a number of articles in academic journals have demonstrated that stocks show larger returns around the first of each month. There has been some

Most never will Even if CRM were to work in theory, it does not work in practice because the increased pro ts are swamped by the increased costs We must keep in mind that customer communications, which are triggered by CRM or a database, produce only incremental results You are already selling something You hope to sell more and keep customers longer by using the database and communications The incremental sales are usually only slightly more than the sales you would have gotten without the database and the communications You have to justify your CRM not on the basis of total sales, but on the basis of these incremental sales Many marketers are doing database marketing and calling it CRM They don t have a warehouse or million-dollar software They are marketing to segments and making money doing it That is great But it is not CRM.

discussion of the so-called January Effect, in which stocks tend to rise in January Hannula (1991) used seasonal cycles in his own trading, providing as an example a chart for EXABYTE stock with strong seasonal patterns marked He also discussed another phenomenon, sometimes observed with seasonal patterns, in which the highs and lows occasionally invert, a pattern that we also have witnessed and that may be worth exploring Other factors that influence various markets have definite dates of occurrence and so should induce seasonal effects; eg, the dates for filing taxes occur at the same time every year The legendary trader, Gann, apparently made heavy use of recurrent yearly behavior in his trading.

NCR, which sells the TeraData computer, has developed some very sucessful data warehouse applications for very large banks,.