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thinking, Isn t this great! A weekend in Orlando for only $69, and no responsibilities other than to have fun. While they are there, they say to themselves, Well, these nice people have given us this great vacation. We might as well see what they have to offer. Maybe we would like to own a place here in Orlando. Tour direct mail that offers a speci c date on the outside of the envelope has a better response rate than offers that say, Come to Orlando this summer for a week on us, with no speci c date mentioned. Why should this be so If families think that if they don t accept this date, they will miss out on the vacation altogether, they are probably more motivated to act immediately than those who think, Well, let s see if we can nd a week when it is convenient for all of us to go together to Orlando. After a couple of days, they have forgotten the offer entirely. Direct mail must have some urgency about it, or it doesn t work well. Ugly one-color offers pull better than beautiful four-color offers. Why This is one of the great mysteries of direct mail. Sometimes you don t know the reason, you just know the results.

KINDS OF BREAKOUTS Breakout models are very popular and come in many forms. One of the oldest is the simple trendline breakour used by chartists. The chartist draws a descending trendline that serves as the upper threshold: When prices break above the trendline, a long position is established; if the market has been rising, and prices break below an ascending trendline, a short entry is taken. Support and resistance lines, drawn using Gann angles or Fibonacci retracements, can also serve as breakout thresholds. Historically, channd breakout modds, employing support and resistance levels determined by previous highs and lows, followed chart-based methods. The trader buys when prices rise above the highest of the last n bars (the upper channel), and sells when prices fall below the lowest of the last n bars (the lower channel). Channel breakouts are easily mechanized and appeal to traders wishing to avoid the subjectivity of drawing trendlines or Gann angles on charts. More contemporary and sophisticated than channel breakouts are volatility breakout models where the points through which the market must move to trigger long or short positions are based on volatility bands. Volatility bands are placed a certain distance above and below some measure of current value (e.g., the most recent closing price), the distance determined by recent market volatility: As

How does a nonpro t fund-raising organization go about testing and re ning its methods An outstanding example of this type of database marketing is that of the Eastern Paralyzed Veterans Association (EPVA), which has used a database to guide its mailing very successfully for many years. Its database is managed by CSC Advanced Database Solutions. To illustrate EPVA s methods, the typical EPVA Christmas card acquisition was aimed at about 2.4 million people selected from 72 different lists. Once donors had given the rst time, they were sent an appeal for a second purchase. This mailing was aimed at about 3.8 million rst-time donors. EPVA broke its database down into ve groups: ND New donors, who made their rst gift after the year-end calculation

volatility increases, the bands expand and move farther away from the current price; as it declines, the bands contract, coming closer to the market The central idea is statistical: If the market moves in a given direction more than expected from normal jitter (as reflected in the volatility measurement), then some force may have impinged, instigating a real trend worth trading Many $3,000 systems sold since the late 1980s employed some variation on volatility breakouts, Breakout models also differ in how and when they enter the market Entry can occur at the open or the close, requiring only a simple market order Entry inside the bar is accomplished with stops placed at the breakout thresholds.

A more sophisticated way to implement a breakout entry is to buy or sell on a limit, attempting to enter the market on a small pull-back, after the initial breakout, to control slinpage and achieve entry at a better price CHARACTERISTICS OF BREAKOUTS Breakouts are intuitively appealing To get from one place to another, the market must cross all intervening points Large moves always begin with small moves Breakout systems enter the market on small moves, when the market crosses one of the intermediate points on the way to its destination: they buy into movement Breakout models arc, consequently, trend-following Another positive characteristic of breakout models is that, because they buy or sell into momentum, trades quickly become profitable Sometimes a very tight stop-loss can be set, an approach that can only be properly tested with intraday, tick-level data.

Active donors, who have made one or more gifts in the previous 12 months Lapsed donors who were not active in the last 12 months prior to year-end Lapsed donors who were not active in the last 24 months prior to year-end Lapsed donors who were not active in the last 36 months prior to year-end

The intention would be to enter on a breakout and to then set a very tight stop loss, assuming momentum at the breakout will carry the market sufficiently beyond the stop-loss to prevent it from being triggered by normal market fluctuations; the next step would be to exit with a quick profit, or ratchet the protective stop to break-even or better Whether a profit can be taken before prices reverse depends on the nature of the market and whether momentum is strong enough to carry prices into the profit zone On the downside, like many trend-following models, breakouts enter the market late-sometimes too late, after a move is mostly over In addition, small moves can trigger market entries, but never become the large moves necessary for profitable trading.