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3. Lifetime value. EPVA decided to use the data in its database to determine Which lists pull the best over the long haul. To do this, it measured the response rate of each list used over the previous 3 years, comparing the results to determine whether the contributions were going up, going down, or staying the same. The effect of frequency of mailing on the level of donation. To do this, it set aside a test group of 20,000 two-time donors and sent these donors only two mailings in the subsequent year. An exactly similar group of donors received four mailings. At the end of 1 year, EPVA could determine which group had the highest contribution. 4. Product analysis. EPVA decided to compare the performance of 50,000 star donors and 50,000 nonstar active donors to determine What was the product that brought them to EPVA in the rst place What products produced the best subsequent responses How did each group perform by product

If the bands are placed too close to the current price level, a large number of false breakouts (leading to whipsaw trades) will occur: Market noise will keep triggering entries, first in one direction, then in the other Because such movements do not constitute real trends with ample follow-through, little profit will be made; instead, much heat (in the form of commissions and slippage) will be generated and dissipate the trader s capital If the bands are set too wide, too far away from the prevailing price, the system will take few trades and entry into the market will be late in the course of any move; the occasional large profit from a powerful trend will be wiped out by the losses that occur on market reversals.

Many companies have had success with referrals. The idea is to get your existing customers to recommend that people that they are related to, work with, or know also become customers. In other words, your customers become advocates. They tell their friends what a wonderful company or product you have, and they get these friends to try your product. Once someone has become a customer as a result of a referral, something wonderful happens. These referrals who become new customers display, as a group, higher retention levels and higher spending levels than the average customer who is recruited by other means. You can prove this for yourself. First, you have to set up a formal referral program. Tell your customers about it, and make it easy for them to generate referrals by contacting a customer service rep or by going on the Web. Once you

When the thresholds are set appropriately (whether on the basis of trendlines, volatility bands, or support and resistance), breakout entry models can, theoretically, be quite effective: Frequent, small losses, occurring because of an absence of follow-through on noise-triggered entries, should be compensated for by the substantial profits that accrue on major thrusts To reduce false breakouts and whipsaws, breakout systems are sometimes married to indicators, like Welles Wilder s directional movement index (1978), that supposedly ascertain whether the market is in a trending or nontrending mode If the market is not trending, entries generated by the breakouts are ignored; if it is, they are taken If popular trend indicators really work, marrying one to a breakout system (or any other trend-following model) should make the trader rich: Whipsaw trades should be eliminated, while trades that enter into strong trends should yield ample profits.

have a new name, address, and email name, it is your job to get that person to become a customer However, you put the person s ID number into the referring customer s database record, and you put the referrer s ID into the referred customer s record They are now tied together You can now measure their retention and spending rates and their lifetime value Let s say that you have done this, and you discover that your typical customer has a 3-year LTV of $70, whereas your average referral has a 3-year LTV of $100 What can you do with that information You can use it to create a special referral incentive program America Online has done this At various times, it has rewarded customers with $25 or $50 for recommending someone who also becomes a customer This is a wonderful example of successful database marketing.

The problem is that trend indicators do not function well, or tend to lag the market enough to make them less than ideal TESTING BREAKOUT MODELS Tests are carried out on several different breakout models, trading a diversified portfolio of commodities, to determine how well breakout entries perform Do they still work Did they ever Breakout models supposedly work best on commodities with persistent trends, traditionally, the currencies With appropriate filtering, perhaps these models can handle a wider range of markets The investigations below should provide some of the answers The standard portfolio and exit strategy were used in all tests (see Introduction to Part II for details)..

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