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CRM is often justi ed by citing references to reports like those of Bain & Company, which maintain that companies can boost customer net present value by as much as 95 percent if they can retain only 5 percent more of their customers. Numbers like these have often been used to persuade management that a CRM package could pay for itself very rapidly. The assertion that growth in net present value results from increased retention is central to Frederick Reichheld s excellent book The Loyalty Effect. Figure 2-1 shows Reichheld s increases in customer net present value in various industries as a result of a 5 percent increase in the retention rate. These numbers seem too good to be true. In fact, they are too good to be true. Let s see what the real numbers might actually be. Let s take one industry from the list as representative of the problem: life insurance. We will take a typical term life insurance policy of $500,000 for a 45-year-old nonsmoker that costs $1000 per year. For such policies, Figure 2-1 Reichheld 5 Percent Retention Gains

Tests I through 3: Stochastic Overbought/Oversold Models. These tests evaluate the model with entry at the open (Test l), on a limit (Test 2), and on a stop (Test 3). Lane s original Fast %K was used. The length was stepped from 5 to 25 in increments of 1. The best values for this parameter in-sample were 25, 20, and 16 (Tests 1 through 3, respectively). For the Stochastic, the traditional thresholds are 20 (lower) and 80 (upper). As a whole, these models lost heavily in- and out-of-sample (see Table 7-3). As in previous tests, the limit

95% 90% 85% 85% 84% 81% 75% 50% 45% 45% 40% 35%

7 - 2

1 tablespoon light miso 2 tablespoons tahini 2 3 tablespoons filtered water 1 small leek 1 16-ounce package extra-firm tofu Mesclun greens, for garnish Grated carrots, for garnish Preheat the oven to 375 F. In a suribachi or small bowl, combine miso, tahini, and water until blended. Clean the leek by cutting off the dark green top (save it for vegetable stock) and discarding the root. Cut the leek in half lengthwise. Rinse thoroughly in a bowl of water to remove sand, pat dry, and mince. You will have about 1 3 cup minced leek to combine in the suribachi. Crush the minced leek gently with the rest of the ingredients. Cut the tofu into twelve slices and arrange on a Pyrex dish. Spread the miso-tahini-leek mixture over the tofu, and roast in the oven for twenty minutes. Remove, cool thoroughly, and garnish with mesclun greens and carrots.

Advertising Agency Life Insurance Publishing Branch Bank Deposits Auto/Home Insurance Auto Service Credit Card Industrial Brokerage Industrial Laundry Industrial Distribution Office Building Management Software

order was the best in both samples, having the least loss per trade; the percent of winning trades (37% in-sample, 36% out-of-sample) was also highest with this order. The stop order was intermediate in performance, with the entry at open being the worst. No markets traded well in either sample. Out-of-sample, the British Pound and Orange Juice were profitable across all orders, and Lumber, Soybeans, and Live Hogs made profits with a stop; other small profits were occasionally noted, hut had no consistency. This model is among the worst tested.

Impact of a 5-percentagepoint increase in retention rate on customer net present value 40% 60% 80% 100%

Tests 4 through 6: RSI Overbought/Oversold Models The model was tested with entry at the open (Test 4) on a limit (Test 5), and on a stop (Test 6) The RSI was computed as suggested by its originator, Larry Williams The length was stepped from 5 to 25 in increments of 1 Across all tests, 25 was the best value for this parameter in-sample The traditional thresholds were used: 30 (lower) and 70 (upper) The model performed more poorly than the Stochastic overbought/oversold one The percentage of winning trades was extremely low, ranging from 26% to 37%, depending on sample and test The average loss per trade reached over $7,000 Net profits were better than for the Stochastic because there were fewer trades; even though the loss per trade was greater, the total loss was smaller This model did not capture any market inefficiency.

Source: Frederick Reichheld, The Loyalty Effect (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1996), p. 36.

The limit order was best, while the stop and open were about equal Significantly more markets showed positive returns, especially in Test 5 when the limit was used: Profits occurred in-sample for Bonds, COMEX Gold, Silver, Platinum, Feeder Cattle, Oats, and Coffee; out-of-sample, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Feeder Cattle, and Oats still traded profitably Also profitable out-of-sample were the NYFE, British Pound, Heating Oil, Corn, Sugar, Orange Juice, and Lumber Tests of Signal Line Models These are essentially moving average crossover models, except that an oscillator is substituted for prices when searching for crossovers In this case, the moving average is called the signal line A short entry is signalled when the oscillator crosses from above to below the signal line; when the oscillator does the reverse, a long entry is generated.