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Since oscillators show less lag than moving averages and less noise than raw prices, perhaps more timely and reliable signals can be generated In Tests 7 through 12, the Stochastic and MACD are considered The Slow %K usually exhibits strong cyclic behavior, appropriate for use with a signal line entry The MACD is traditionally plotted with the signal line, even if crossovers are not a traditional entry criteria Tests 7 through 9: Stochastic Signal Line Models The model was tested with entry at the open, on a limit, and on a stop (Tests 7 through 9, respectively) Lane s original Slow %K Stochastic was used because, in preliminary testing, Fast %K produced an incredible excess of trades, resulting from very high noise levels and the indicator pegging near its extremes The signal line consisted of a 3-bar simple moving average of Slow %K.

Year 1 Retention rate Customers Payments Revenue Commissions Claims Total costs Pro t Discount rate Net present value Cumulative NPV 50% 100,000 $1,000 $100,000,000 $ 20,000,000 $ 75,000,000 $ 95,000,000 $ 5,000,000 1.00 5,000,000 5,000,000 Year 2 60% 50,000 $1,000 $50,000,000 Year 3 65% 30,000 $1,000 $30,000,000 Year 4 70% 19,500 $1,000 $19,500,000 $ 97,500 $14,625,000 $14,722,500 $ 4,777,500 1.21 $ 3,943,929 $26,903,530 Year 5 75% 13,650 $1,000 $13,650,000 $ 68,250 $10,237,500 $10,305,750 $ 3,344,250 1.29 $ 2,589,822 $29,493,352

The length of the Stochastic was stepped from 5 to 25, in increments of 1 The best values for this parameter insample were 15, 14, and 11 (Tests 7 through 9) Overall, these models lost heavily on a per trade basis Due to the large number of trades, the losses were astronomical The limit order was best, showing the least loss per trade and the highest percent of winning trades across samples Entry at the open was worst..

1 cup wild rice 5 cups water 1 2 cup diced onion 2 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil 1 2 cup grated carrots 1 2 cup currants or raisins 1 2 cup finely chopped mushrooms 1 3 cup pine nuts 1 tablespoon finely chopped fresh rosemary 2 tablespoons fresh lemon juice Salt to taste Freshly ground black pepper to taste 8 large cabbage leaves 3 4 cups prepared chunky tomato sauce Rinse and drain the rice In a small saucepan, bring four cups of water to a boil Add rice Reduce heat to low Cover and simmer for one hour If any water remains, drain rice Meanwhile, in a pan over medium heat, saut the onion in oil for five minutes Add carrots, currants or raisins, mushrooms, pine nuts, and rosemary, and saut six to eight minutes more, until the vegetables are tender.

$ 250,000 $ 150,000 $37,500,000 $22,500,000 $37,750,000 $22,650,000 $12,250,000 1.07 $11,491,557 $16,491,557 $ 7,350,000 1.14 $ 6,468,043 $22,959,601

This model likes stops, perhaps because they act as trend filters: After countertrend activity is detected (triggering an entry signal), before entry can occur, the market must demonstrate reversal by moving in the direction of the trade. Stops also performed better in countertrend moving average models, Only two markets had positive returns in-sample, but not out-of-sample. Out-of-sample, the stop produced a few small profits; Coffee made more than $2,000 per trade. Tests 10 through 12: MACD Signal Line Models. Entry at the open (Test lo), on a limit (Test ll), and on a stop (Test 12) were examined. The classic MACD, employing exponential moving averages, was used. The shorter moving average was stepped from a length of 3 to a length of 15 in increments of 2; the longer moving average was stepped from lengths of 10 through 40 in increments of 5. The moving average serving as the signal line had a fixed traditional period of 9. This was the best performing oscillator model thus far. In-sample, the limit order was best and entry at open was worst. Out-of-sample, the stop was best and the limit order worst. Out-of-sample, the stop produced the highest percentage of wins (40%) seen so far, and the smallest loss per trade. In-sample, only Lumber was substantially profitable with a limit. Live Hogs, Pork Bellies, Coffee, and Sugar were profitable in-sample with a stop. Lumber, Live Hogs, Pork Bellies, and Coffee held up out-of-sample. Many markets unprofitable in-sample, were profitable out-of-sample. The highest number of markets traded profitably with a stop.

the rst-year retention rates are very low. Subsequent rates are much higher. Table 2-5 shows the net present value for such policyholders for the rst 5 years. This chart shows that the cumulative net present value (the present value of the pro ts) from 100,000 new policyholders will be $29.5 million over 5 years. Note that we are assuming that 50 percent of the policyholders drop their policies during the rst year. After that year, the retention rate increases. Of particular importance is the discount rate. This is the rate used to discount future pro ts and convert them into net present value pro ts. The formula for the discount rate is D (1 i * rf ) years to wait