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A simple moving average (maI) of a specified length (av&n) was computed for the integrated, price-like seasonality series. A second moving average (ma2) was taken of the first moving average. A buy signal was generated when ma1 crossed above ma2. A sell signal was generated when maI crossed below ma2. (This is the same movingaverage crossover model discussed in the chapter on moving averages, except here it is computed on a predicted, seasonal series, rather than on prices.) The entries were effected by either a market at open (Test l), a limit (Test 2), or a stop order (Test 3). Optimization for these tests involved stepping the length of the moving averages (avglen) from 5 to 20 in increments of 5 and the displacement (disp) from 0 to 20 in increments of 1. For entry at the open, the best performance (in terms of in-sample risk-to-reward ratio) was achieved with a moving average length of 20 and a displacement of 5. Entry on a limit was best with a length of 20 and a dis-

The Web has become a super method of distributing premiums or certi cates. Here is how this works: Consumers arrive at commercial Web sites to do their research. Many of them will print out a page containing the information about your products. Since this is so, why not give them a reason to purchase the product right away by giving them a certi cate (see Figure 3-1) The certi cate serves two purposes: 1. It drives traf c to the retailer. 2. The process of delivering it to the customer provides you with a customer s email name and address for further marketing efforts.

placement of 8. Entry on a stop required a length of 20 and a displacement of 6. The model seemed to prefer longer moving averages (more smoothing), and somewhat earlier signals were required by the limit order when compared with the stop or market-at-open orders. In-sample, none of the results were profitable when both long and short positions were traded. However, the losses were much smaller on a per-trade basis than those observed in many of the other tests presented in earlier chapters. The stop order performed best. The market-at-open order performed worst. The limit order came in not too far behind the stop. For both the stop and limit orders, trading was

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Here s how to do this. When a consumer is looking at your product on your Web site, there should always be a Receive a valuable additional premium button on the site next to the item. When consumers click on that button, they see a panel where they enter their name, address, and email address. If they have already printed a certi cate from your site on this or a previous visit, the panel is automatically lled in, and all they need to do is to click on the Send Certi cate button. When they click on this button, they will be sent an email containing the certi cate as an attachment, which they can print on their PC printer. Are you afraid that some customers will abuse the certi cates No problem. You maintain a database, and if you allow only one certi cate per product per email address, your Web site can easily control that. What the certi cate contains are two bar codes. There is a bar code for the product to be purchased and a bar code that has been created for the customer. To use the certi cate for a mail-in rebate, the customer takes it to a retailer, buys the product, and receives a purchase receipt. He mails the certi cate with the purchase receipt to the address shown on the certi cate. At the ful llment center, the certi cate is scanned, capturing the product and customer data. There is no need for

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data entry at the ful llment center, since your Web application automatically transmits all customer names to the center along with their bar codes at the time they are sent the emailed certi cate The ful llment center simply checks the purchase receipt against the database created by the Web site and clicks OK If a rebate is involved, a check is issued and mailed automatically A variation of this method, which can save the manufacturer money, is to have the customer provide his credit card data, which can also be converted to a bar code lookup table (not the actual credit card number) by the Web site software At the ful llment center, the scanning process can credit the rebate to the customer s credit card account, thus saving the cost of mailing a check.

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