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actually profitable for long positions. In all cases, ZO-bar moving averages provided the best results, but the displacement varied depending on the order. A look-ahead of 5 bars was optimal for entry at tbe open, 8 bars for entry on a limit, and 6 bars for entry on a stop. This makes sense, in that one would want to post a limit order earlier than a market-on-open order so as to give the limit some time to be filled. Out-of-sample, the results showed the same ordering of overall performance as measured by the average profit per trade ($TRD), with the stop order actually producing a positive return of $576 per trade, representing an 8.3% annual retam on account; this system, although not great, was actually profitable on recent data. For

eToys assumed that loyal customers would come back once they had been acquired. On the Web, customers soon learn that it is very easy to shop around and they do. Proximity works with bricks-and-mortar stores. You can drive to them, park in their parking lots, and go inside. The Web is very different. It is very hard to create and maintain customer loyalty on the Web. eToys could not count on its customers coming back, and they didn t. Even given the competition, eToys assumed that the growth of the Web would provide enough buyers for everyone. The company planned to double its sales every year. That was achievable only when sales were very small. In fact, competitors multiplied and national sales grew only modestly, and so eToys forecasts were worthless. Perhaps eToys biggest mistake was spending too much to create a distribution network. The company s investment in property and equipment amounted to more than $120 million. This meant that property investment equaled about 95 percent of the year s revenue. A similar gure for retailers was 20 percent, and one for catalogers was 13 percent. Faced with these investments, eToys could not make a pro t without a massive sales increase. That increase did not occur.

the stop entry, both in- and out-of-sample trading was profitable when only the long trades were considered, but the short side lost in both samples This is a pattern that has been observed a number of times in the various tests The percentage of wins for all orders and samples was between 40 and 43% It is interesting that, even for the losing variations, the losses here were much smaller than what seems typical for many of the models so far tested With entry at the open, equity declined until November 1988 It retraced approximately 50% of the way until July 1989, making a small U-shaped formation, with the second of a double-top around November 1990 Equity then declined rather steeply until November 1992 and, in a more choppy fashion, throughout tbe remainder of the in-sample period and the first third of the out-of-sample period.

The Web has proved to be an excellent transaction medium for business-to-business dealings. Some companies selling memory chips for computers, for example, have registered sales of several hundred million dollars per year. For a few, these transactions represent more than 85 percent of their total revenue. Their sales are to companies that buy computer components to install in units for sale or to upgrade their own equipment. This type of Web transaction will continue to grow in the years ahead. How do customers nd out about these transaction sites About a third of them comes from advertisements placed in print magazines, a third comes from Web ads on technical sites, and the remainder comes from search engines. Many have established premier pages for their best customers. On these pages, their best customers have established accounts,

The decline ended in April 1996 when equity gradually climbed throughout the remainder of the out-of-sample period With entry on a limit, equity was fairly flat until January 1987, rose very rapidly to a peak in May 1987, and then declined until November 1992 From then through July 1994, equity rose steeply Afterward, choppy performance was observed with no significant trend The stop order produced strong equity growth until June 1988 Equity then declined in a choppy fashion through most of the in-sample period and about the first quarter of the out-of-sample period It reached bottom in December 1995 and then rose sharply through the end of the out-of-sample period in February 1999 Across all three entry orders, the best-performing market was Unleaded Gasoline, in which strong, consistent profits were observed in both samples.