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Palladium was also a strong market for this model: Both the entry at open and entry on limit produced profits in- and out-of-sample, with the entry on limit having strong profits in both samples, and the entry on stop producing strong profits outof-sample and neutral results in-sample Live Hogs was another good market to trade seasonally: Every order type yielded profits in-sample, while two of the three order types yielded profits out-of-sample; both the limit and stop orders were profitable in both samples Yet another good market to trade with this model is Coffee: All three orders produced in-sample profits, while the market at open and stop orders produced strong profits out-of-sample Finally, Cotton did not do too badly: The stop order yielded strong profits in both samples, and no order resulted in strong losses in either sample Finding good performance for Unleaded Gasoline is totally in accord with expectations.

so that their employees can order the units charged directly to their company accounts. Business-to-business Web transactions continue to register success in a wide variety of elds. Why are they more successful than consumer Web sales There are several reasons: The average order size of business transactions is much greater than the average consumer order size. The universe of business customers is much smaller. It is less expensive to reach them through direct mail or print or Web advertising than to reach average consumers. Premier pages work well here. They don t work at all with consumers. Business customers have a continuing and predictable need for most of the business products sold through the Web. Consumer purchases cannot be predicted as easily. Business-to-business transactions on the Web are conducted during the day, when buyers and sellers are in their of ces working at their company PCs. Consumers, on the other hand, if they are employed, have to do their Web shopping after they get home at night. There are competing demands on their time. It is more fun to go to the mall with their families or to watch television. That is why about 80 percent of all sales on the Web are business to business.

recipe. The glycemic index (a measure of the ability of a food to raise blood sugar) for this kind of chocolate is surprisingly low, which means it is very good in terms of preventing diabetes and obesity. Later in this book you will find a healthy chocolate dessert made from semisweet dark chocolate and chickpeas. It is absolutely delicious!

What is moderately surprising is that Heating Oil, for which there is a strong seasonal demand characteristic, was only profitable in both samples when using the limit order Coffee also traditionally has strong seasonal patterns caused by, eg, recurrent frosts that damage crops, create shortages, and drive up prices Surprisingly, the wheats did not produce many profits in-sample The only exception was a small profit for Minnesota Wheat with a limit order More profits in the wheat group were seen out-of-sample, where the limit order led to profitable trading in all three wheat markets and the stop order in Kansas Wheat..

Business-to-business e-commerce transactions can be highly successful. Pure-play Web e-commerce seldom works. Success comes to established businesses that add a Web presence. To make the Web work, you have to build a very expensive distribution system. Once you have built such a system, you are not a pure-play operation anymore. Barriers to entry on the Web are very low. It is very easy and inexpensive to start a new Web site in any category. It is very hard and expensive to build a chain of stores and warehouses. That

A number of other markets showed profitable, but less consistent, trading across sample and order type. Again, it is impressive to see the great number of markets that trade well across both samples, especially when compared with many of the other models that have been tested in the preceding chapters. It is also interesting that there is a discrepancy between the performance of the seasonality model in the current tests and in our earlier tests of the S&P 500 (Katz and McCormick, April 1997). The differences are probably due to such factors as tuning. In the earlier tests, the moving averages were specifically toned to the S&P 500; in the current tests, they were tuned to the entire portfolio. Moreover, compared with other markets, the seasonal behavior of the S&P 500 appears to involve fairly rapid movements and, therefore, requires a much shorter moving average to achieve optimal results. Finally, the earlier tests did not use separate exits and so a seasonal trend lasting several weeks could be captured. In the current test, only the first 10 days could be captured, after which time the standard exit closes out the trade. It is likely that the performance observed, not just on the S&P 500, but on all the markets in the portfolio, would be better if the standard exit were replaced with an exit capable of holding onto a sustained trend. Tests of the Basic Momentum Model