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means that if you are successful on the Web, you will very soon have many Web competitors People like to hold something in their hands before they buy it What about catalogs A catalog is something you can hold in your hands, pass around, and scribble on; you can tear out pages and stick them on your refrigerator You can t do any of this easily on the Web There is precious little loyalty on the Web To keep people coming back, you have to personalize your Web site and communicate often Mass advertising is too expensive for most Web sites Loyalty is very dif cult to generate and maintain on the Web So if you have an established land-based business and want to bene t from the Web, what should you do Look on the Web as more of an ordering medium than a selling medium.

For the momentum model, the unintegrated seasonal price change series was smoothed with a centered simple moving average of a specified length (avglen). The centered average introduces no lag because it examines as many future data points, relative to the current bar, as it does past data points. The use of a centered moving average is legitimate, because the seasonality estimate at the current bar is based on data that is at least 1 year away. For this series of smoothed seasonal price changes, a series of average absolute deviations was computed: To produce the desired result, the absolute value for each bar in the smoothed seasonal series was computed and a loo-bar simple moving average was taken. A buy signal was issued if the seasonal momentum, at the current bar plus some displacement (disp), was greater than some multiple (thresh) of the average absolute deviation of the seasonal momentum. A sell signal was issued if the seasonal momentum, at the same displaced bar, was less than minus the same multiple of the average absolute deviation. Entries were executed at the open (Test 4), on a limit (Test 5), or on a stop (Test 6). Optimization was carried out for the length of the moving averages, the displacement, and the threshold. The length was stepped from 5 to 15 in increments of 5; the displacement from 1 to 10 in steps of 1; and the threshold from 1.5 to 2.5 in increments of 0.5. The best in-sample performance was observed with a length of 15 and a threshold of 2.5, regardless of entry order. For the market at open and for the stop a displacement of 2 was required. The limit worked best with a displacement of 1. In agreement with expectations, these displacements are much

Put your Web URL on all your catalogs, brochures, and direct mail pieces Provide one-click ordering to make it super fast Provide a dealer locator Create a pro le of every customer Give all your customers, whether business-to-business or business-to-consumer, a personal PIN, and invite them to come to your Web site to update their pro le Give them a gift for doing so What is a pro le It contains not just the customer s name and address, but the customer s email address (with permission to use it), demographics, family composition, preferences, and purchasing history Get the customer s permission for you to remember his or her ID and password that is, permission to put a cookie on his or her PC If the customer is a business, use the pro le to nd out what it does, how it uses your products, and how often it buys.

smaller than those that were optimal for the crossover model where there was a need to compensate for the lag associated with the moving averages Overall, the results were much poorer than for the seasonal crossover model In-sample, profitability was only observed with the stop order No profitability was observed out-of-sample, regardless of the order The losses on a pertrade basis were quite heavy Interestingly, the long side performed less well overall than the short side This reverses the usual pattern of better-performing long trades than short ones With both entry at open and on limit, equity declined in a choppy fashion from the beginning of the in-sample period through the end of the out-of-sample period The decline was less steep with the limit order than with entry at open.

Use the pro le to populate your database that is used for regular of ine sales Use the pro le to personalize your site As Amazon or Staples does, say, Welcome back, Susan (using a cookie) Then vary the site content based on the pro le If Susan has children under the age of 4, your site will look different from the way it will look if she has children in college This is not expensive to do Most sites that have customer pro les developed can become fully personalized for a hundred thousand dollars not millions..

And Coffee Too!